Yo Delaware Valley, The Time is NOW to Close Schools
Dear School Closing People,
Please Use Up Those Snow Days Sooner Rather Than Later..!!!
“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist.
Everything we do after will seem inadequate.” -M. Leavitt, DHHS
It has been a crazy mild winter here in the Delaware Valley, and it looks like the trusty shovels will be heading back into the garage without seeing a single flake of snow. I’m sure for many people, the lack of wintery-mix this season has been a welcome relief. There are a few of us old-timers though, who still wax nostalgic about listening to KWY news radio on a snowy morning hoping that schools would be closed. (For some of you younger whippersnappers, KWY was kind of like Twitter for our generation, except on the radio - with no hashtags).
The Epic School Closing Call of ‘75
Out in Montgomery County our school closing number was 315, and if the forecast called for snow, we would be glued to the radio in the early morning as the first flakes started to fall — and the announcer would start rattling off numbers — “From the KYW Newsradio storm center, the following schools are closed…306, 307, 309, 310, 312, 313 opening 2 hours late,314………. 316, 317,318, 319…”
Nooooooooooo!
I don’t know who was actually in charge of making the school closing call for Springfield School District, — supposedly it was the transportation director — but whoever it was, we were convinced that they must have been born in Northern Minnesota. More than once I remember trudging into school as the snow got under way only to be sent home early — “Oops — we are really are getting 19 inches of snow — sorry about that everyone”. Meanwhile, district 314 always seemed to close if the word “snow” was even in the forecast — rumor had it that their school closing person had recently moved to Philly from Tampa!
One morning though, I think it was in late February of ‘75, “Mr. Minnesota” made an epic and unforgettable call. The radio was on in the kitchen, but the sky was clear blue, so I wasn’t really paying attention. “We have a handful of school closings this morning, 253, 301, 315, and 487”. The news was so unbelievable that I had to make my mother listen to it again 15 minutes later. Sure enough, “253, 301, 315, and 487” played a second time. It was a snow day — but without any snow. Mr. Minnesota had lost his mind!
As the morning dragged on though, the sky started to get grayer and grayer. The first flakes started falling around lunch time and by 2:00 the wind had picked up to gale force with snow and sleet pinging off the living room window, while cars were spinning out up and down our little street. On the evening news we watched countless stories of commuters and school buses getting stuck on the way home. By the time it stopped snowing the next morning we had more than 15 inches of snow, and for a second day in a row we heard that magic number called on the radio. 315!
Of course, it doesn’t take exceptional intelligence to close schools when there are already 15 inches of snow on the ground — but on the other hand — making the call before a single flake falls like Mr. Minnesota did, well that seemed super awesome at the time. In fact, looking back — not only was it a super awesome call — but good old Mr. Minnesota must have had some clear-eyed forecasting skills, confidence, and yes -maybe even some courage. Close schools when the snow hasn’t even started and you seem alarmist — but wait until the busses are going home through impassable roads and you look incompetent!
With the impending arrival of COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley, hopefully you can see where I’m heading here — but I don’t want to leave it all snowflakes and sleigh rides- which brings me to a second Philly school closing story…
The Epic Non-Closing Call of ‘18
In the early autumn of 1918, the Great War was still grinding to its eventual end. Even though America didn’t enter the war until 1917, no family or institution in Philadelphia had been left untouched by the battles raging in Europe. Meanwhile, there was yet another battle starting on the home front that would prove just as deadly. Unfortunately, leaders in Philadelphia were woefully slow to respond to the Spanish Flu. Instead of closing schools and cancelling events as early cases of “the grip” passed the 100+ mark, plans went forward for a massive Liberty Loan Parade in support of the troops. It was calculated that more than 200,000 people attended the parade on September 28th, 1918 — and then like clockwork, about 5 days later there was a dramatic spike in flu cases. Schools and public events were finally closed on October 3rd, but it was too little too late. By the time it was over, the Spanish Flu epidemic had claimed thousands of lives across Philadelphia.
An article in PhillyVoice depicts the deadly impact. “By the time the epidemic concluded several weeks later, more than 12,000 deaths had been recorded. At its height, 759 people died on a single day. Bodies piled up so fast that Philadelphia’s only morgue, at 13th and Wood streets in the heart of the city, contained several hundred corpses — despite a capacity for just 36. Bodies were stacked three and four deep, covered only by dirty and blood-stained sheets. Most were unembalmed and not stored on ice.” (1)
A Tale of Two Cities
Meanwhile, across the nation in St. Louis, city leaders took a decidedly more aggressive approach towards the outbreak. This chart is a stark depiction of how Philadelphia fared vs. St. Louis.
So what did St. Louis do differently? How did they so dramatically flatten the curve of disease incidence? They moved with all deliberate speed to shut down schools and public events at the first sign of outbreak. According to the National Academy of Sciences — “The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities downplayed their significance and allowed large public gatherings, notably a city-wide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm local medical and public health resources. In contrast, the first cases of disease among civilians in St. Louis were reported on October 5, and authorities moved rapidly to introduce a broad series of measures designed to promote social distancing, implementing these on October 7. The difference in response times between the two cities (≈14 days, when measured from the first reported cases) represents approximately three to five doubling times for an influenza epidemic.” (2)
Flatten the Curve By Community-wide Isolation, a.k.a. STAY HOME!
Community isolation for COVID-19 seems to be working in cities all around the world, but just a few days of foot-dragging and indecision can make the difference between a manageable crisis vs. outright disaster. Scientific American describes why quick action is essential : “The only path to flattening the curve for COVID-19 is community-wide isolation: the more people stay home, the fewer people will catch the disease. The fewer people who catch the disease, the better hospitals can help those who do. Crowding at hospitals doesn’t just threaten those with COVID-19; if emergency rooms are overwhelmed, more flu patients, too, will die because of lack of treatment, for example.”
School Closings 2020
On March 4th, 2020, the Italian government announced that they were closing all schools and universities. If we look at the most recent reproduction rate data from various countries — the R factor, it is clear that not only has Italy been hit harder than other countries, but that it had enough data more than 2 weeks ago to shut the schools. Time will tell, but sadly it seems likely that the Italian people will pay a steep price for this slow response.
No Excuses Philly! Don’t Squander Two Incredible Blessings….
Friends and neighbors here in Philadelphia, first and foremost, we have been given an incredible amount of advance information about how the COVID-19 virus has been spreading. In cities all around the world, we are now witnessing dramatic examples of how to successfully address the outbreak, as well as painful examples of failed containment. All the current data from other cities, our own historical experience, public health insights, and the strength of this virus all point to shutting down our schools and events sooner rather than later!
The second blessing is that our school systems all across the region are sitting on days and days of unused snow days. Looking at the calendar, I imagine many school officials are hoping they can make it to spring break in early April before closing — and then maybe having an extended closure after that. However, schools across the region can use their snow days for an early spring break in mid to late March and dramatically help to flatten the curve of this outbreak. If the situation is still bad in April, then there will certainly be plenty of support for staying closed.
The first flakes haven’t started to fall yet around here— but make no mistake — the wind and fury of this virus is on its way. If there is any doubt, school officials, businesses and other community leaders need to make the tough call, THE EARLY CALL, to send teachers, students and workers home while there are just a few cases in the air.
Philly, we have seen this scary movie once before. Let’s not let history repeat itself!
Notes:
1). Kopp, J. (2019, March 12). 100 years ago, ‘Spanish flu’ shut down Philadelphia — and wiped out thousands. Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://www.phillyvoice.com/100-years-ago-spanish-flu-philadelphia-killed-thousands-influenza-epidemic-libery-loan-parade/
2). Hatchett, R. J., Mecher, C. E., & Lipsitch, M. (2007, May 1). Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
3). Tufekci, Z. (2020, February 27). Preparing for Coronavirus to Strike the U.S. Retrieved March 3, 2020, from https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/preparing-for-coronavirus-to-strike-the-u-s/
#COVID19 #FlattenTheCurvePhilly
