COVID-19 #1 Cure = Massive Doses of Imagination, Mathematics and Common Sense
The COVID-19 outbreak in the US comes at a particularly bad time given the vast shortages we’ve been experiencing lately in terms of collective common sense solutions, basic mathematical understanding, and what I would call “personal applied imagination”.
Today is March 11th, 2020 — and how the COVID-19 crisis plays out is really anyone’s guess at this point. Right now, I am not overly optimistic — but on on the other hand, I am fairly confident that “life as we know it” will more or less continue. That being said, there are three areas where I think we could all “up our dosage” in terms of COVID-19 planning and prevention and still make a big difference in how this plays out.
1). Personal Preparation & Imagination — COVID-19 Is Trying to Kill ME!
There is a great conversation in Joseph Heller’s Catch-22 when Yossarian is trying to get out of harms way during the war:
“They’re trying to kill me,” Yossarian told him calmly.
No one’s trying to kill you,” Clevinger cried.
Then why are they shooting at me?” Yossarian asked.
They’re shooting at everyone,” Clevinger answered. “They’re trying to kill everyone.”
And what difference does that make?”
On the scale of scary diseases, I think Ebola clearly is at the top of list for me. That being said, from what I’ve been reading about COVID-19 and the ease with which it seems to shred people’s lungs — this one is probably now a close second. COVID-19 is here, and I’ll admit it — I am afraid it’s trying to kill me. Now I know there are a lot of “doorknob licking” millennials out there who feel rather invincible these days, along with many other people who apparently believe that the virus will somehow recognize their political or religious allegiances and spare them — or even believe that the entire narrative of COVID-19 is a fabricated fake news fiction.
Ummmm…. not to be a Debby Downer folks, but it really is a fact that a good number of perfectly healthy 20–50 year olds, along with many people of a certain conservative political persuasion will get infected, get very sick and even die in the next few weeks and months. And for those who are older, or have complications, the number of casualties could be on the scale of any World War battlefield footage that you have ever seen. (more on that shortly)
Friends, getting COVID-19 is not a pleasant way to shuffle off these mortal coils! If you have not taken the time to read about bilateral interstitial pneumonia — which is really the epidemic we are about to experience, let me help get your imagination going: Imagine over the period of a few days or weeks slowly suffocating as your lungs are shredded like ground glass and then fail completely. With good medical care and a working ventilator you might have a decent chance to survive, but even then it seems that many patients are left with permanent scarring of the lungs.
Right now I’m honestly amazed and even a bit dazed and confused by how many people are still out and about attending events, hockey games, running to the store, sitting at Starbucks etc. like there isn’t a worry in the world. Folks — I am very worried for you not being worried. Please get worried — yes, maybe even panic a little! COVID-19 is trying to kill me, and it’s trying to kill you!
Am I washing my hands like a crazy person? Yes! Am I taking a daily regimen of vitamins? Yes! Am I staying home like a hermit? Yes! Am I driving my wife and family crazy? Yes! Is there anything else I can do? I’m not sure, but if I hear of anything else that looks like it could realistically lower my odds of getting infected, I’m sure as shit going to do it!
2). The Mathematics
Not to bore you with my life story, but once upon at time I studied Public Health at Johns Hopkins, and have subsequently spent my entire career at the intersection of health communications and viral growth marketing. For all the friends, family, random internet Twitter twitterers, Fox News experts, and Oval Office occupants who keep talking about the Flu and how this is not really a serious situation — I made a little chart below about how this could play out in the next 3 months from a viral growth perspective. While Flu is currently out in front in terms of its killing power, COVID-19 is poised to come on like a Blitzkrieg, plague, bomb, swarm of locusts — insert your own metaphor here____ and surpass the Flu in short order.
While there is certainly a need to debate and discuss “how bad is it really going to get?” it seems pretty clear from the mathematics of the current outbreak that at least 50,000 -150,000 Americans are at risk of dying just in the first wave coming in the next two months. Maybe even A LOT MORE. Obviously I hope this does not happen — but right now, the numbers do not look good.
This is what viral growth looks like! If this were the potential upside for an internet business and these projections represented new customers, people would be grabbing up the IPO shares for COVID-19 like there was no tomorrow…
3). Extreme Prevention and Common Sense Policy
Realistically, no one in a leadership position wants to give the appearance of panic. Generally, this a very good thing. That being said, we are now at a point where leaders at all levels — family, small businesses, churches, large organizations, government — could all embrace the phrase of “Extreme Prevention” quite effectively. “So, are you panicking?” “No, but I am really really into Extreme Prevention.”
So what does Extreme Prevention look like?
A. Get out of the way and STAY HOME
The virus will not spread if it can’t find anyone to spread to! This is why social distancing is so critically important and so effective. Especially in the early days of the outbreak!! Given how easily COVID-19 spreads, this is the most critical aspect in slowing down the velocity of this epidemic. Even if you are a healthy millennial and aren’t worried about getting infected, your nonchalance could easily kill or maim a friend or loved one. (If you still think this is all a bunch of over-hyped BS and have actually read this far — I’m not sure what to say at this point — except to maybe bookmark this article to re-read next month and we can see where things are at).
Especially important is to isolate and shield those most at risk — the elderly and those with complications and/or who might be immunosuppressed.
Obviously there is no easy way to do this — but looking back in a couple months — you will want to know that you did everything possible to keep yourself and your loved ones out of harms way.
Staying home also really helps to check the velocity of the outbreak! Here, based on data from Seattle, the blue line is just running around like usual — vs. what happens if we all just stay home starting RIGHT NOW.
Why is slowing down the velocity of the outbreak so important? Because we desperately need to give our world class medical providers a fighting chance…
B. Still Time to Brace the Medical System
There was a reason China raced to build new hospitals when the it was clear the virus had broken containment. It’s because they did the math and realized they didn’t have enough beds and ventilators to get everyone treated at once. If you have ever driven to the shore on a Friday, or stood in line at an amusement park during a holiday, or gone shopping on Black Friday — our healthcare system is about to have a gigantic traffic jam of really sick people who are quite simply fighting to breath.
For anyone who has been to their local ER lately, it does not take a leap of imagination to see how a couple dozen more cases coming through the door all at once will lead to Crazy Town levels of stress and additional contamination. Since leadership at the top seems to be behind the curve on this — it is essential and imperative that all of us tune in with our local healthcare providers and local government to see what to do and where to go if we or someone we know isn’t feeling well.
Meanwhile — if you are in a policy position — serious thought needs to be given right now about where to set up make shift treatment centers and provide additional beds for when/if your community “goes hot”. Many of you may have seen the Band of Brothers movie where the troops were left on the D-Day beach without any air support. Like it or not, this is where we’ve landed, and it is time to start scrambling up the cliffs on our own.
C. Support the Front Line Responders!
Much like the firefighters who rushed INTO the burning towers on 9/11, doctors, nurses and support teams at every hospital in the country could soon go into an incredible all hands on-deck emergency situation that is really hard to imagine. This frontline extends out of the hospital building to all manner of first responders, police officers, fire fighters, etc. I’m sure all of us know someone — or many someones — who will be on the front lines very shortly. Make sure they know they have your 100% support and appreciation.
Again, local leaders and hospital staff need to double down on the sense of urgency and preparedness, anticipate shortages for front line responders , limit bureaucratic roadblocks, and generally “batten down the hatches” before the storm hits.
So What Now?
It has been frustrating to watch some of the disconnected and conflicting responses out of Washington — but at this point, that is really beside the point. Much of our success and failure now depends on how each of respond as individuals in the next two weeks, and how local leaders rally — or don’t rally — as the situation demands.
Can some last minute doses of inspired imagination, mathematics and common sense really make a difference now? I really think so! We can do this! You can do this!
Some men give up their designs when they have almost reached the goal, while others, on the contrary, obtain a victory by exerting, at the last moment, more vigorous efforts than ever before”
― Herodotus, The Histories
Are you guys ready?
Let’s roll!
-Todd Beamer
Flight 93
9.11.01
PS — If you read all this way and feel it was helpful info,
please share!
PPS- An additional list of “To Dos” for the project plan!
An ER Docs recommendation
1) Nationalize as in war time production of PPE’s, testing kits and ventilators
2) Suspend EMTALA
3) Activate FEMA and DMAT teams
4)Pop up Field Hospitals with ICU capability Israel seems to have expertise
5)Decentralized testing away from hospital or if on hospital away from ED
6)Drive through testing capability and I would add pulse ox capability
7)Draconian travel restrictions
8)Canceling all mass gatherings
9)Massive marketing of PSA explaining what patients to do especially not going to ED if not in respiratory distress (Need to refine this message )
10)National Telemedicine for screening
11)Locking down Nursing Homes require all care givers in full gear and frequent testing
12)Use state ACEP for some sort of incident command structure
13)Use emergency funding to compensate quarantined
I got to turn this in now
